A few tidbits of election analysis

Two weeks have passed since the 2008 general election, and I wanted to provide a few tidbits of state and local analysis before too much time passes. The results for the Commonwealth of Virginia, Arlington County and my precinct, Rock Spring, appear in the tables below.

• Statewide: There were no particular surprises at the state level. McCain/Palin received almost exactly as many votes (1.73 million) as Bush/Cheney did in 2004 (1.72 million). Obama/Biden received about 510,000 more votes than Kerry/Edwards. I read that as meaning the Republicans have basically reached their ceiling with the traditional base in Virginia. To win against a strong Democrat (like, say, Obama in 2012), we are going to need to hold onto our base and either pull some of those Democrats/Independents back to our side or else find a new source of votes. As expected, turnout was significantly higher (16% higher) in this election than in 2004.

Virginia
2008
CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%

Obama/Biden 1.96 million 52.60%

McCain/Palin 1.73 million 46.35%
Total 3.72 million


2004
CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%

Kerry/Edwards 1.45 million 45.48%
Bush/Cheney 1.72 million 53.68%
Total 3.20 million


• Arlington County: Arlington is much bluer than most of the state, but the results reflected very closely the statewide results in at least one respect. The Republicans held their own -- McCain/Palin received almost the same number of votes (29,876) as Bush/Cheney did in 2004 (29,635). Obama/Biden attracted about 15,000 more votes than Kerry/Edwards. Turnout also was significantly higher (16% higher) in this election than in 2004. The one consolation is that the county Democrats were aiming for Obama to take 80% of the vote. They missed that goal by quite a bit despite a very active and organized GOTV effort. Every weekend starting in late September, I would see 6-10 20-somthings with Obama t-shirts canvassing our neighborhood with clipboards.

Arlington County
2008
CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%

Obama/Biden 78,994 71.71%

McCain/Palin 29,876 27.12%
Total 110,153

2004
CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%

Kerry/Edwards 63,987 67.20%
Bush/Cheney 29,635 31.12%
Total 95,219

• Rock Spring Precinct: Bizarro results. Obama/Biden did slightly worse than Kerry/Edwards; McCain/Palin did slightly better than Bush/Cheney. Turnout among both Republicans and Democrats was significantly lower in 2008 than in 2004 (a 25% drop overall!). To my knowledge, the district boundaries were not redrawn. I don't have access to any population data that would back me up on this, but I feel safe in saying that the population of my neighborhood is very stable. Although Democrats outnumber Republicans significantly, the neighborhood is very white and older than many parts of Arlington (e.g., Clarendon, Ballston). Hillary Clinton might have attracted more votes here than Obama. As to why there were fewer votes here for McCain than for Bush -- who knows? There are a least a fair number of people in the neighborhood who work or who have worked on the Hill. Maybe McCain has pissed off enough of his Republican colleagues over the years for there to be a noticeable lack of enthusiasm among insiders.


Rock Spring Precinct
CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%

Obama/Biden 904 59.90%

McCain/Palin 594 39.36%
Total 1509


2004
CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%

Kerry/Edwards 1227 60.74%

Bush/Cheney 768 38.02%
Total 2020