Obligatory links

I'd be remiss if I didn't include this video account of the failure of the media in this election.



The Zogby poll that appears to support the video is amusing, although it would be more interesting if McCain voters had also been polled.

A few tidbits of election analysis

Two weeks have passed since the 2008 general election, and I wanted to provide a few tidbits of state and local analysis before too much time passes. The results for the Commonwealth of Virginia, Arlington County and my precinct, Rock Spring, appear in the tables below.

• Statewide: There were no particular surprises at the state level. McCain/Palin received almost exactly as many votes (1.73 million) as Bush/Cheney did in 2004 (1.72 million). Obama/Biden received about 510,000 more votes than Kerry/Edwards. I read that as meaning the Republicans have basically reached their ceiling with the traditional base in Virginia. To win against a strong Democrat (like, say, Obama in 2012), we are going to need to hold onto our base and either pull some of those Democrats/Independents back to our side or else find a new source of votes. As expected, turnout was significantly higher (16% higher) in this election than in 2004.

Virginia
2008
CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%

Obama/Biden 1.96 million 52.60%

McCain/Palin 1.73 million 46.35%
Total 3.72 million


2004
CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%

Kerry/Edwards 1.45 million 45.48%
Bush/Cheney 1.72 million 53.68%
Total 3.20 million


• Arlington County: Arlington is much bluer than most of the state, but the results reflected very closely the statewide results in at least one respect. The Republicans held their own -- McCain/Palin received almost the same number of votes (29,876) as Bush/Cheney did in 2004 (29,635). Obama/Biden attracted about 15,000 more votes than Kerry/Edwards. Turnout also was significantly higher (16% higher) in this election than in 2004. The one consolation is that the county Democrats were aiming for Obama to take 80% of the vote. They missed that goal by quite a bit despite a very active and organized GOTV effort. Every weekend starting in late September, I would see 6-10 20-somthings with Obama t-shirts canvassing our neighborhood with clipboards.

Arlington County
2008
CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%

Obama/Biden 78,994 71.71%

McCain/Palin 29,876 27.12%
Total 110,153

2004
CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%

Kerry/Edwards 63,987 67.20%
Bush/Cheney 29,635 31.12%
Total 95,219

• Rock Spring Precinct: Bizarro results. Obama/Biden did slightly worse than Kerry/Edwards; McCain/Palin did slightly better than Bush/Cheney. Turnout among both Republicans and Democrats was significantly lower in 2008 than in 2004 (a 25% drop overall!). To my knowledge, the district boundaries were not redrawn. I don't have access to any population data that would back me up on this, but I feel safe in saying that the population of my neighborhood is very stable. Although Democrats outnumber Republicans significantly, the neighborhood is very white and older than many parts of Arlington (e.g., Clarendon, Ballston). Hillary Clinton might have attracted more votes here than Obama. As to why there were fewer votes here for McCain than for Bush -- who knows? There are a least a fair number of people in the neighborhood who work or who have worked on the Hill. Maybe McCain has pissed off enough of his Republican colleagues over the years for there to be a noticeable lack of enthusiasm among insiders.


Rock Spring Precinct
CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%

Obama/Biden 904 59.90%

McCain/Palin 594 39.36%
Total 1509


2004
CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%

Kerry/Edwards 1227 60.74%

Bush/Cheney 768 38.02%
Total 2020

Our president too

It is a little hard to believe, but within a few weeks, Barack Obama is going to be our president. My impression of him is mostly negative -- we know little about his values and the little we know indicates he is a Statist with little regard for individual freedom. I credit him, though, with being politically savvy. Despite all of the post-election smack talk from the Left, I do not think the smarter ones think they have been given a mandate to steer this country in the direction of Sweden.
On election night, I went to bed just after they called Ohio for Obama, so I didn't watch Obama's victory speech. One segment stood out, though, when I watched the clips the next day.

"Let us resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long. Let us remember that it was a man from this state who first carried the banner of the Republican Party to the White House - a party founded on the values of self-reliance, individual liberty, and national unity. Those are values we all share, and while the Democratic Party has won a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility and determination to heal the divides that have held back our progress. As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, We are not enemies, but friends...though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection. And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn - I may not have won your vote, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your President too."

The guy is an eloquent speaker, if nothing else, and those comments seem to show some insight into what folks like me don't like about Obama and his ilk. I'm certain the next four years will be difficult to watch, but if Obama continues serves in that spirit, I will indeed consider him my president and I will leave the 1.20.13 bumper sticker off my car. Obama's domestic challenge, of course, will be holding back the worst of the ideas from the Left, and the Left has no shortage of bad ideas -- imposing the (un)Fairness Doctrine, revoking favorable tax treatment for 401(k) plans, cutting the military budget by 25% and enacting another (perhaps even more egregious) ban on firearms with cosmetic features that frighten Statists, just to name a few. If any of these proposals comes under serious consideration, you can forget my civility and respect toward our elected leaders. I'll be working on my "Obama=Stalin" sign for my march on Washington, and, I'll post a couple of "Impeach him" signs in the front yard. One of my fine neighbors has seen fit to do the latter for the last few years, so maybe I'll just ask him if I could borrow them for a little while.

Why I'm doing this

For years I've read libertarian/conservative blogs like countertopchronicles, lgf, freewillblog, sayuncle and, of course, instapundit. I've always thought about starting my own blog, but lack of time and concerns about privacy have kept me from starting. The recent election has made me want to give this a shot. The federal government has made a mess of things over the last decade, and, remarkably, the presidential election in which we were supposed to be selecting someone to set us on the right track left us with a choice between a guy who conceded that "the issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should" and a guy whose understanding of economics seems to have been nurtured at Moscow State. Conservatives and libertarians in this country have got to do a better job of communicating their answers for the problems our country faces. I don't know if anyone will ever read this blog, but, if nothing else, I'm hoping it will sharpen my thinking and my skills at articulating positions I believe in.